For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. A surface low pressure system is forecast to emerge
along the northern portion of the trough axis later tonight or on
Friday, and some subsequent development could occur through
Saturday. By late Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to
become less conducive for development, and the low is expected to
begin interacting with an approaching frontal system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
2. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern portion
of an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression could form early next week while the
disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward over the
central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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